Grain Market Report
October 2007
Sunflower
Pricing is continuing to move higher. Producers will be desiccating the crop in an attempt to take advantage of old crop pricing. We may see a shortage of material with harvest a ways off. We can expect new crop in early to mid November. In an effort to encourage more acres to get planted and compete with other commodities, sunflower crushers and processors have had to move their bids much higher. The opportunity to beat the price increase has disappeared. The Global Oil market is keeping pressure on all Oil crops, this trend is expected to continue. Advice stay hand to mouth on purchases until new crop becomes available.
Nyjer Seed
As indicated earlier Nyjer had the opportunity to move up in price. Pricing and shipments have moved up substantially in the past 3 to 4 weeks. Some of the increases are in sympathy with other grains. With price increases, certain suppliers at source are defaulting on contracts driving prices up even further. We have seen dramatic increases, as much as $20.00/100 U.S. in recent weeks. Importers are reluctant to quote and are concerned about supply. We feel the market has stabilized to the point where we can now publish a price. This will change if conditions warrant. There are three countries that export this material, India, Burma and Ethiopia. All countries of origin are reporting smaller inventories and less availability. Purchase strategy look to cover for shipments early in the new year this product reflects new crop pricing.
Peanuts
Both Peanut Pickouts and Peanuts in Shell are under pressure due to lower acres planted in the US. Drought conditions and more Peanuts going back into the oil market will keep Peanuts in short supply over the next twelve months. Further complicating the issue is the ever increases in the Vegetable Oil and other oil complexes.
Millets & Milos
Harvest is well underway or completed. With a very strong Wheat prices many producers will market their Wheat earlier and have more available bins for Millet storage. Once the crop is in the bin and the Wheat money in the bank it will take higher prices to get the crop to market. Pricing is anticipated to remain very strong over the next 12 months. Supply is not an issue and quality is average to above average.
Corn / Wheat
We are currently in the strongest Wheat market in recent history. There is a global reduction in available Wheat. This has prompted many producers to move their crop earlier than anticipated. You can expect this situation to be short lived as many acres will see Wheat this fall and next spring. In the short term rationing will need to take place, this will happen automatically with higher pricing. We have one of the largest Corn crop coming this fall. Yield will be average to above average. Pricing may see downward pressure at harvest as they try to store this large crop. Off setting that will be the fact that corn will increase in sympathy with wheat.
Canadian Dollar
In recent weeks we have seen the strongest dollar in almost thirty years. At time of writing the dollar is currently trading almost at par with the US dollar. This will help imports of raw material. However being an exporting country many sectors of our economy will need time to adapt to this new reality.
If you require additional information or you would like firm pricing on a specific commodity, please contact us at 905-779-2473 or email Ken, Rob or Robbin.
