Grain Market Report
July 2008
Sunflower
Old crop supplies are very volatile at this time and in tight supply. The Global Oil market is keeping pressure on all Oil crops, this trend is expected to continue. The USDA report from June 30 indicates an 8 % drop in acres in Canada and a 5 % increase in Oil seed acres in the US. it was anticipated to see a 10 % increase in acres . One bright spot is the mid west is experiencing delayed planting on various crops which may lead to larger Oil Seed acres . All areas are receiving suitable moisture levels and growing conditions are good.
Nyjer Seed
Supply is suitable. Going forward pricing and availability would seem to be suitable. We may see some softening of prices in the fall of 2009.
Peanuts
Once again the oil market is keeping old crop numbers very tight. The June planting report indicates Peanut Acres are up 18.8 % higher than 2007. If growing conditions are favourable this may lead to some price relief in fall of 2009.
Millets & Milos
Milo has seen sharp increases in the past few weeks. Milo trades with corn which has been under pressure. The Milo story will become more clear in August when it will become evident how acreage where realigned with the after math of the recent Midwest flood. On farm stocks of Milo are reported to be higher than previous years, supply for the third quarter of 2008 should not be an issue. Millets pricing has remained relatively static through most of the planting season. Planted acres are up 6.1 % over 2007. Growing conditions and precipitation are good.
Corn / Wheat
We are anticipating a very large Wheat crop in this immediate area as well as much of North America. We have seen dramatic price drops in the Wheat market over the past number of months. Many end users such as Bakeries and Flour mills will be limiting their usage until new crop becomes available, first sign of price relief in any product for many months. In this immediate area the large amount of rain over the past number of weeks raises concerns of fursarium (mould) in the 2008 Wheat crop. Locally the fields are turning and harvest will commence shortly. Corn has experienced extreme price pressure over the past month. The June 30 USDA report indicated planted acres our down by 7 % over 2007. This decrease along with slow planting progress and less than desirable growing conditions has lead to strong pricing rally. This story will unfold in August when it can be determined what affects the growing conditions and the mid-west flood may have had on yields.
Canadian Dollar
Most recently the Canadian dollar has returned to levels closer to par with the U.S. currency. This is good news for manufactures and others looking for relief from the highs of mid November 2007. The one issue which has cushioned the impact of grain price increases here in Canada is the increase in the dollar. Although welcomed by grain users it is not a guarantee that this will happen each time we see huge increases. Canada is rich in raw materials, metals, oils and grains. If and when these sectors see significant increases our dollar will tend to move up with these commodities.
If you require additional information or you would like firm pricing on a specific commodity, please contact us at 905-779-2473 or email Ken, Rob or Robbin.
