Grain Market Report
October 2008
Sunflower
Old crop supplies are very volatile at this time and in tight supply. The Global Oil market has fallen dramatically on all Oil crops, this trend is expected to continue. The USDA report published September 30, 2008 indicates an increase in acres of 15% in the USA. Harvest is well under way with quality average to above average. Pricing will most likely trend down over the next few months. However producers will most likely store product in farm bins and be reluctant to sell in a downward market.
Nyjer Seed
Supply is suitable. We are seeing some softening of prices in the fall of 2008. Keep your purchases minimal, as pricing will trend down do to lack of demand.
Peanuts
Once again the oil market is keeping old crop numbers very tight. New crop is a ways off, supplies are adequate.
Millets & Milos
Milo has seen dramatic reduction in value. Milo trades with corn which has been under pressure. The Milo story will become clearer as we get into full harvest. Milo will continue to move in sympathy with corn. Millet pricing has reduced substantially over the past number of weeks. Planted acres are up 6.1 % over 2007. Growing conditions and precipitation were better than previous years. This situation has created a much larger crop than analysist have predicted.
Corn / Wheat
We experienced a very large Wheat crop in this immediate area as well as much of North America. We have seen dramatic price drops in the Wheat market over the past number of months. This trend is expected to continue; adding to this pressure will be the continuing reduction of other grains with Wheat falling in sympathy with these materials.
Corn has experienced extreme price pressure over the past month. The Corn crop is estimated at 7 percent below 2007 levels. The expected yield is anticipated to be 154 bushels per acre. If realized this will be the largest yield since 2004 and the second largest crop with only 2007 being larger. This story will unfold in October and November 2008 when actual yields have been realized. With the recent economic uncertainty much of the speculative funds have left the commodity market resulting in much lower end user pricing.
Canadian Dollar
Economic challenges along with continued softening of Commodity futures have left us with a very battered CDN dollar. At time of writing we are at a 1.16 exchange rates or .86 cents value against the US dollar. This is good news for manufactures and others looking for relief from the highs of mid November 2007. We will continue to see a volatile dollar until stability returns to the commodity market. The weakness of CDN dollar has somewhat limited the savings being realized in the commodity markets as all gains are priced in US dollars. Canada is rich in raw materials, metals, oils and grains. If and when these sectors see significant increases or decreases our dollar will tend to move up and down with these commodities.
If you require additional information or you would like firm pricing on a specific commodity, please contact us at 905-779-2473 or email Ken, Rob or Robbin.
