Grain Market Report
May 2011
SUNFLOWER: The strong market trend that started in early January 2011, has continued right through to the end of April 2011. Processors have increased their new crop bids to attract larger acres for 2011, in an attempt to reverse the trend of less sunflower acres. The USDA planting intention show producers plan to plant 4 % less Black Oil seed acres in 2011, and reduce Stripe Sunflower by up to 12 %, in favour of more profitable crops. At time of writing, the price offered to growers is 33.30/100 US funds. The entire edible Oil complex has strengthened due to smaller world wide inventories and strong demand from both Oil crushers and bird food packers competing for existing supplies. With pricing at an all time high, bird food retailers should consider promoting Wild Bird blends. They will be less expensive than straight Oil Seed or Striped Sunflower. Taking possession of material may be wise to avoid shortages in the late fall while we wait for new crop. The new crop offers are at a large discount to old crop and many end users will be holding out for new crop. Supply will be tight for the balance of 2011. With cool damp weather in much of North America, we may see some acres convert to specialty crops, as the deadline approaches for traditional plantings such as corn and beans. Next key report will be the June 30th, USDA Planting Report.
NYJER SEED: Supply is adequate with soft demand. Nyjer Seed experienced very little upward pressure while other oil products have. It has become apparent that demand for Nyjer seed this past year in North America is off significantly. A lower demand due to the absence of finches seems to be a common theme with many processors. When migratory patterns return to a more normal level, increased demand may spark an increase in pricing levels. Taking a position for your spring and summer needs would be advisable.
PEANUTS: Supplies are ample. Quality of the 2010 crop is less desirable due to damp harvesting conditions. We are working with larger numbers of suppliers to source good quality and attractive material that displays well on the shelf and in mixes. Prices have increased by 26% since the beginning of December, 2010, in sympathy with other edible oil products. Affloxtoxin levels are a concern with this year’s crop. The WBFI recommends levels of greater than 20 ppb not be used in Wild Bird products. At time of writing, planting intentions for Peanut acres are down 4% versus 2010.
MILLETS & MILOS: Milo trades with corn. Milo will continue to move in unison with corn. A concern for Milo is the continual decline in acres. However, over the past number of years, planting intentions are up 4.2 % for 2011. The USDA stocks report showed stocks of Milo down 3 % from 2010. The more important trend setter showed stocks of Corn down 15 % below analyst’s expectations. This sent old crop Corn into unseen price levels taking Milo with it. Millet pricing has increased by 35% in the past several weeks moving up in sympathy with other grains. Millet supplies are ample. Being a specialty crop no acreage report is available. Unless we have delayed planting of the main line crops, one can expect reduced acres for 2011. Millet can be successfully planted in June is drought tolerant and is considered a last chance crop if conditions are unfavourable for other grains.
CORN/WHEAT: Wheat futures continue to remain strong as carry over stocks are anticipated to be lower. Planting intentions for 2011, are up 8 % for spring wheat. The recent crop report indicates that 75 % of the crop is fair to good across the mid west. Corn stocks are at an all time low, and forecasted to reach historical lows. The March 30th USDA Report, indicated stocks to be lower than anticipated, sending the grain market stronger. At time of writing, planting intentions for corn are up 5 % to 2010. Corn will be setting the race for acres for all specialty crops. Favourable conditions for corn planting will leave less acres, resulting in higher prices. When reviewing the increases of many reports for a number of crops, the math indicates there will be winners and losers in the race for acres. To get relief from current extreme market conditions, we will require dry planting conditions along with suitable moisture this spring and summer. This should create a calming effect to the commodity market.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: Strong commodity sector, brisk crude Oil prices and the improving Canadian Economy impacts our dollar very positively. Analysts are forecasting a strong Canadian currency for the foreseeable future. At time of writing, the current exchange rate is a 1.05 U.S. dollar for every Canadian dollar. This is a three year high. Our high dollar improves our purchasing power but does curb exports.
If you require additional information or you would like firm pricing on a specific commodity, please contact us at.... 905-779-2473 or email Ken at , Robert Gunstone at , Robbin Pridmore at or Ryan Zantingh at
If you require additional information or you would like firm pricing on a specific commodity, please contact us at 905-779-2473 or email Ken, Rob or Robbin.
